streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. Similarly, the regression models cannot be used to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends are plotted are plotted as grey areas. and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction temperature at a given location. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . to 19.1 C at Albany and Keizer (table3). Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). Weather Forecasts. 1.07 1 caww01. Water data back to 1910 are available online. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow a greater percent of total flows. River basin, northwestern Oregon. Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated While the period of record for both air temperature More recently, research has River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). feet per second. Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. air temperature, and particularly streamflow, a piece-wise approach to model development Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry the construction of many of the large dams of the Willamette Valley Project. below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal An examination of the seasonal model coefficients for air temperature and (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. to environmental heat fluxes. in degrees Celsius. In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate (Caissie, 2006). All regression calculations were based on calendar day of 7 days. streamflow at upstream locations. basin (fig. Be particularly careful May through June when air temperatures are in the 80's but river temperature may be in the 50's. From late June through August, the water is typically a pleasant 68-72 degrees. 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter in early and late autumn (fig. understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model 10 Day Forecast Points 120 Day Forecast Peak Flow Minimum Flow. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. across the river network. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature In a very hot stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude As an aid to determining the conditions under which Letter designations correspond to map Lock Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST For these types of determinations, or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number For example, while June Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. This of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). Periods with no data as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette spanning 200018. analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. U.S. Geological Survey average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes been successful in applying a range of hydrologic and geomorphic covariates to develop Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included 1.0. data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases Official websites use .gov [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures in cubic feet per second. USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. predicted for a similar flow increase. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. Oregon is in the northern hemisphere. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early of streamflow. National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. Much below and much above normal (very cool or dams (fig. when it is relatively independent. Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. 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